Rowing up a creek?

First the basics:
A new, independent cricket league is going to be formed soon in India called the Indian Cricket League (ICL).

In typical BCCI fashion, the members promise to take their time assessing the threat and taking appropriate action against it.

For an overall description of the implications and fallout's of this announcement read this article by Jayaditya Gupta.

Finally, to round it off, for a detailed description for the inspiration (no doubt) and the confidence behind this move read this article by Gideon Haigh on Kerry Packer and his rebel league in the 1970's.

My take on this:
The ICL will not succeed in India, not in these times, at least. Would I like them to? Yes, if only for the fact that the BCCI runs cricket (not just Indian cricket) like a kingdom, bowing only (and repeatedly) to the clout of money. The BCCI is the richest board in the world and it is this fact that will undermine the ICL, which is trying to market itself as an ancillary rather than a breakaway league.

To be successful the ICL needs to have players who are in their prime, playing excellent cricket, and capable of representing India on behalf of the BCCI. By joining the ICL the players will have signed away their chances of playing for India. The International Cricket Council (ICC) will recognize only one cricket board per nation and they will not slay their golden goose by cutting ties with it. So in the absence of any "official" status the ICL will only function as a private venture where the biggest carrot that can be dangled in front of the players is money. Unfortunately, market economics being what they are currently, players who represent India (or rather the BCCI) are enormously rich. Joining the ICL will not enhance their income. If anything their income will decline appreciably, especially if endorsement deals do not follow.

Kerry Packer succeeded because the money he paid was more than the players would make otherwise, the television product Channel 9 put out was ahead of its time, and the quality of play was far superior to the one the viewers got to see in the traditional ICC-sanctioned tours. The ICL may try to corner the Twenty20 market but the real money is in ODI's and Tests. In fact, Test cricket would have died a slow death had it not been for the fact that television companies can show ads, periodically interspersed with cricket, for 5 whole days as opposed to just one. So how exactly is the ICL expected to survive in the current scenario?

Some of my friends have said that the Indian fan is tired of the shenanigans of the BCCI and the players and will gladly watch a rebel league. I don't think so. I have already blogged about how fickle I think these "fans" are. Trust me, the Indian team will visit Bangladesh in a few weeks, a couple of players will gorge on the bowling (remember there are no run rates to worry about so they can bat as slowly as they want to), reclaim demi-god status, and the BCCI will go back to its money-minded ways while the ICL will drum up some initial support by harnessing has-been's (such as Jadeja, Mongia, Sriram), and could-have-been's (such as Powar, Ratra, Chopra), and stumble through a season or two. Then the BCCI and the ICL "will come to an agreement" to merge and more mega-bucks will be negotiated with Zee Sports for a TV contract and the golden goose will go on laying eggs. The rabid Indian fan will be oblivious to the bits of egg splattered all over his face and will go back to rooting for the team on a good day and burning effigies on a bad one.

I would love to eat my words but, sadly, I just do not see that happening.