Occam's razor

Greg Chappell and Rahul Dravid have been experimenting with the ODI batting order, seemingly randomly, and have left not just the opposition but also the fans guessing as to who would bat where. In particular they have targeted the #3 spot as one of the most flexible ones.

The IndianOil Cup in Sri Lanka was the first time Rahul Dravid was made the captain for an entire series, under the aegis of Greg Chappell. Since that time the following players have batted at #3 - Mohammad Kaif, Irfan Pathan, MS Dhoni, JP Yadav, Yuvraj Singh, Virender Sehwag, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, SK Raina, and VVS Laxman.

The critics have been crying hoarse that such instability in the batting order is not good for the team's "chemistry". Chappell-Dravid repeatedly tell reporters that they are not experimenting but rather are indulging in "strategic planning". They insist that there is a rhyme and a reason for sending whomsoever they send in at #3 on a particular day. So, if indeed there is some method to who goes to bat where, what is the pattern? How do they decide whose turn it is to bat?

I searched for a pattern and I think I am beginning to see one. The Indian think-tank (Chappell, Dravid and Tendulkar) appear to have broken up the batsmen into two categories - the accelerators (Sehwag, Yuvraj, Pathan, Dhoni) and the anchors (Tendulkar, Dravid, Kaif). These 7 form the central core of their batting lineup.

The manipulation of the batting line-up is based on pairing an accelerator with an anchor as much as possible. Which role-players will go in to bat depends upon the state of the match:

The generic formula: Sehwag and Tendulkar will open. Sehwag's mandate is to accelerate, while Tendulkar's is to consolidate. If Sehwag gets out early - either Pathan or Yuvraj or Dhoni will go in. If Tendulkar gets out first - either Kaif or Dravid will go in.

Scenario 1: Batting first

• Corollary 1a: If India is batting first, and a wicket falls with a major portion of the PowerPlays still available to exploit, two accelerators will be paired up.
• Corollary 1b: If India is batting first, and a wicket falls with most of the PowerPlays having been consumed, the replacement batsmen shall be of the same category as the dismissed one.
  

Scenario 2: Batting second

• Corollary 2a: If India is batting second, and a wicket falls with a major portion of the PowerPlays still available to exploit, the replacement batsmen shall be of the same category as the dismissed one.
• Corollary 2b: If India is batting second, and a wicket falls with most of the PowerPlays having been consumed, the replacement batsmen shall be an accelerator if the asking rate is high or the replacement player will be an anchor if the asking rate is manageable.

(Naturally, the personnel will change due to injury/selectorial whims but I think the basic principles are in place. As time goes by, it will be interesting to see if I have correctly gauged the think-tank's intentions. I shall keep you posted on it.)

Now, the less obvious strategy appears to be in terms of marshalling the bowling resources. I admit that I have not really paid attention to that side of the equation. With the pitches being the way they are in most of the Indian subcontinent, I wonder if a strategy, other than to bowl a good line and bowl more slowly as the pitch wears down ,will even be necessary.